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By Amos; Talmi, Igal; (deshalit) de-Shalit

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The Clinton administration is supporting the policies developed during those earlier years to deny potential proliferators access to materials and technology relevant to weapons acquisition - and delivery - and it made vigorous and successful efforts to get an indefinite extension of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty of 1970 when it came up for review in 1995. It is also developing, within the Department of Defense, new 'counter-proliferation' initiatives . It is unlikely , however, that either the administration's commitment to old policies or its new efforts will be very successful and they may, in some respects, be counter-productive.

In particular, the Scud Mod-D missile known as the Nodong, is capable of reaching a range of 1,000 kilometres and capable of being fitted with chemical or nuclear warheads. Syria has also contracted with China for the purchase of a nuclear research reactor, for medium range M-9 missiles, and chemical ingredients for missile fuel. 24 That nuclear weapons may constitute the 'great equalizer' among unequal conventional military powers, is a lesson that has not been lost on the states of the Middle East and South Asia .

Making such a concession may be especially difficult considering that very strong claims that were, as it turns out, wildly exaggerated ones - were made for the effectiveness of the US Patriot air defence missile system against modified Soviet Scud missiles in the Gulf War. But the concession must be made. Nuclear weapons are so powerful and cities - and deployed troops - are so fragile that a defence that is less than, say, 90 per cent effective is not very interesting, and 90 per cent success is probably just not on the cards, given the multiplicity of means of delivery of nuclear weapons , including particularly the possibility of the use of cheap, but effective, decoys in the case of delivery by ballistic missiles.

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Nuclear Shell Theory by Amos; Talmi, Igal; (deshalit) de-Shalit


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