New PDF release: Evaluation of Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties

By National Research Council, Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences, Committee on the Evaluation of Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties Methodology for Assessing and Certifying the Reliability of the Nuclear Stockpile

ISBN-10: 0309128536

ISBN-13: 9780309128537

Keeping the functions of the nuclear guns stockpile and appearing the once a year evaluation for the stockpile's certification comprises a variety of procedures, applied sciences, and services. a massive and necessary point aiding to hyperlink these elements is the quantification of margins and uncertainties (QMU) framework. during this ebook, the nationwide examine Council evaluates: how the nationwide protection labs have been utilizing QMU, together with any major transformations one of the 3 labs; its use within the annual overview; and, no matter if the functions of QMU to evaluate the proposed trustworthy alternative warhead (RRW) might lessen the possibility of resuming underground nuclear checking out. This e-book offers an review of every of those matters and comprises findings and proposals to aid consultant laboratory and NNSA implementation and improvement of the QMU framework. It additionally serves as a advisor for congressional oversight of these actions.

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Extra info for Evaluation of Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties Methodology for Assessing and Certifying the Reliability of the Nuclear Stockpile

Example text

The national security labs should carry out interlaboratory comparisons of different methods for finding and characterizing the most important uncertainties and for propagating these uncertainties through computer simulations of weapons performance. 5 QMU and the RRW Program Task 4: Evaluate whether the application of the quantification of margins and uncertainties used for annual assessments and certification of the nuclear weapons stockpile can be applied to the planned Reliable Replacement Warhead program so as to carry out the objective of that program to reduce the likelihood of the resumption of underground testing of nuclear weapons.

Rather, knowledge of this process has been pieced together from physics understanding, experiments, full-scale nuclear tests (primarily underground nuclear tests), and expert judgment. ) In the absence of a detailed physics understanding for these phenomena, the labs use four knobs (see Glossary) to represent them in the simulation models. ) Each knob is a parameter in the simulation codes that can be adjusted to match important features of underground nuclear test data and of experiments on devices of similar design.

Fig 2-2 of the metric comes from calculations that are also uncertain. In this example (see Figure 2-2) the simplest use of QMU is to compare a single estimated number for a margin, M, against a single estimated number for the uncertainty, U. Here M is the difference between the best-estimate value of the lower bound of the design range of metric VBE (in the figure, the primary yield) and the best-estimate value of the upper bound of the threshold, T BE (in the figure the minimum primary yield).

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Evaluation of Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties Methodology for Assessing and Certifying the Reliability of the Nuclear Stockpile by National Research Council, Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences, Committee on the Evaluation of Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties Methodology for Assessing and Certifying the Reliability of the Nuclear Stockpile


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